Next country to leave EU odds
Teemu Mattila Updated:
Which country will make the next EU exit?
Many Britons remember 2016 and the Brexit referendum that led to the UK's decision to leave the EU. When the UK was leaving the EU, there were fears that many other EU nations would follow and the mass departure process from the EU would be right around the corner.
By winter 2022 however, no other country has left the EU, although the situation has been bubbling under the surface in several countries. Below you will find the TOP 10 odds for EU exit betting and a deeper analysis of the five most likely candidates for the next countries to leave the EU.
Odds on the next country to leave the EU
- No country to leave before 31/12/2025 - 1/7 @Unibet
- Italy - 3/1 @10Bet
- Greece - 10/1 @10Bet
- Poland - 14/1 @Unibet
- France - 20/1 @Unibet
- Czech Republic - 12/1 @10Bet
- Austria - 12/1 @10Bet
- Netherlands - 20/1 @Unibet
- Spain - 14/1 @10Bet
- Hungary - 17/1 @Unibet
Italy to leave EU odds 3/1 - 10BET 50%/£50 sign-up offer
Italy is the front-runner regarding the odds of leaving the EU. Italy has held the top spot for several months, and the odds fell when the right-wing politician Giorgia Meloni became prime minister with her "Italy first" slogan. Betting site 10Bet offers odds as low as 3/1 on Italy's EU exit.
Arguments for and against Italexit:
- 👎 Italy's leaders are currently nationalists who do not value Brussels as the central institution of the European Union.
- 👎 Italy needs the will to implement all the reforms demanded by the EU, which are tied to the economic package.
- 🤝 Italy is a founding member of the European Economic Community, currently known as the European Union.
- 🤝 The Italian economy has still not fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly not helped. Therefore, Italy needs economic support from the EU.
Poland to leave EU odds 14/1 - Unibet 100%/£40 deposit bonus
Many EU rules and climate regulations irritate Poland. The Eastern European country is the second favourite to leave the EU next, at odds 14/1.
Arguments for and against Polexit:
- 👎 Coal production and energy are a huge priority for Poland - this runs against the EU's greener thinking.
- 👎 Poland's highest court has tried to rule that the national constitution precedes EU law.
- 🤝 According to polls, over 80% of the population supports the EU.
- 🤝 Being a member of the EU brings stability to a country that shares a border with war-torn Ukraine.
Greece to leave EU odds 10/1 - 10BET 50%/£50 sign-up offer
Greece has suffered significant economic problems for most of the 2000s. The EU has financed the country and its banks with a series of bailouts, but at the same time, it has forced Greece to take numerous austerity measures. The Greek people are fed up with regulations and are seemingly ready for potential Grexit. 10Bet offers 10/1 odds of Greece leaving the EU.
Arguments for and against Grexit:
- 👎 The EU's austerity measures have slashed minimum wages and caused job losses, making people unhappy.
- 👎 Greece relies heavily on gas supplied by Gazprom, and it has no problem trading with Russia - unlike the EU in general.
- 🤝 In the autumn of 2022, Greece completed its 12-year EU-enhanced surveillance programme.
- 🤝 The country has a sizeable intra-EU import trade.
France to leave EU odds 20/1 - Unibet 100%/£40 deposit bonus
France is one of the EU's powerhouses, and surprisingly, the odds of the country leaving the EU are relatively low at 20/1. The odds date back to the spring 2022 presidential election in which Marine Le Pen said she would pull France out of the EU and NATO if she won.
Arguments for and against Frexit:
- 👎 Although Le Pen lost the election, she garnered 41.45% of the vote, which indicates that over 13 million French people desire to get rid of the EU.
- 👎 Yellow vest protests are gaining popularity.
- 🤝 President Emmanuel Macron has underlined the EU's united stand against Russia during the war in Ukraine.
- 🤝 French is the second-largest economy in the EU.
Hungary to leave EU odds 17/1 - Unibet 100%/£40 deposit bonus
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is one big stone in the EU's shoes. The Dutch have already said out loud that they don't see Hungary as a member of the EU anymore. However, the country remains in the running mainly due to its economic incentives. Unibet sees Hungary leaving the EU at odds of 17/1.
Arguments for and against Hungary's EU exit:
- 👎 The LGBT community and many other minorities have almost no rights in the country - this conflicts with EU principles.
- 👎 Power has been concentrated in the hands of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and free media rights have been curtailed - all of which are against EU principles.
- 🤝 Hungary's general standard of living has risen with EU membership.
- 🤝 The Hungarian people value the freedom of movement within the EU.
Other political betting odds & markets
At Bojoko, we actively monitor betting on various elections and present a wealth of election odds. On our dedicated article, you can read more about political betting and check out the best political betting sites. We also recommend checking out our Turkish and 2024 US election odds articles.